With the lone debate upcoming between Florida’s U.S. Senate contenders, Republican Connie Mack was crowing Monday about a new Rasmussen Reports survey that shows Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson’s lead down to one-percent.

But even those running the robo-poll aren’t sure what to make of the new numbers — a dramatic downturn for Nelson from last week’s Rasmussen survey that showed the Democrat on top by 11 percentage points.

“It is highly unlikely that public opinion shifted 10 points within a week,” the polling firm acknowledged. “That suggests either last week’s results or this week’s may be an outlier. Polling theory suggests that one out of every 20 polls will produce results outside the margin of error.”

The Rasmussen poll of 750 Florida voters was conducted Oct. 11. It has a margin-of-error of plus-or-minus 4 percent. Because it uses automated dialing to reach respondents, Rasmussen is prohibited from contacting cell-phone users, now believed to represent about one-third of voters and a population that skews Democratic.

But it may also make sense that Mack is gaining on Nelson as Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney has overtaken President Obama within the Sunshine State.

“If Mitt Romney wins, I win. If I win, Mitt Romney wins,” Mack has said. “So we are certainly going to be tied together.

Mack and Nelson are scheduled to face-off Wednesday night on live, statewide television for their only debate of the race from Nova Southeastern University in Davie.

Republican Connie Mack is shaping up as big trouble — not only for his fellow GOP contenders for the U.S. Senate nomination, but two-term Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson, a poll shows Friday.

Mack, a Cape Coral congressman, is the favorite of 43 percent of Florida voters, to 39 percent for Nelson, according to the survey of 500 likely voters conducted Thursday by Rasmussen Reports. The poll has a margin-of-error of plus-or-minus 4.5 percent.

The survey also shows Nelson holding comfortable leads over other Republican contenders, former U.S. Senate-appointee George LeMieux and former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner. A Quinnipiac University poll released last week showed Mack holding a formidable lead over the four GOP candidates already in the U.S. Senate race.

Mack’s father, who shares the same name, represented Florida in the U.S. Senate from 1989 to his retirement in 2001, when he was succeeded by Nelson.

A new Rasmussen poll shows GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Scott with a six point lead over Democrat opponent Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink.

The telephone poll found that 50 percent of likely voters said they will cast their ballot for Scott with Sink getting 44 percent.

Rasmussen Reports now shifted the race from a toss-up to leaning Republican in its latest Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

Earlier this month, Sink had a slight edge over Scott, with a 48 to 47 percent lead.

Both polls included “leaners,” likely voters who initially respond that they have no preference for either candidate but when asked again say they prefer a particular candidate.

A Mason Dixon poll released yesterday showed Sink with a 7 point lead over Scott. That poll of likely voters gave Sink 47 percent of the vote compared to 40 percent for Scott, with 11 percent undecided.