Democratic operative Steve Schale predicts that independent Gov. Charlie Crist will not win the three-way race for U.S. Senate against Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek. From his blog:
In this political environment, absent some significant and unfortunate event that would thrust [Crist] back into the spotlight, the odds of him finding 15-20 points of political approval in the next nine weeks are slim, at best.
Therefore, for Crist, who after 20 years of being a GOP insider, his only path to victory is to find a way to be Democratic enough to win enough Democrats, Republican enough to win enough Republicans, and to do that in a way where he doesn’t anger Independents. Not exactly the easiest thing to do, when Democrats now have a plausible alternative in Meek and Republicans in Rubio. If Greene had won, it might be a different story.
Democrats who support Crist keep saying to me, “well, we just need Dems to vote for Crist,” but that just isn’t going to happen in the margins he needs to win.
Today, Rubio has the clearest path to victory, but once Democrats figure out that Meek is their only option, his path will get much more clear as well.
Bill McCollum appears no closer to uniting behind Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Scott than he was last week.
Some have compared it to the 2004 Republican U.S. Senate primary, when Bill McCollum waited two weeks to endorse fellow Republican Mel Martinez. Back then, McCollum was upset about Martinez’s decision to run an ad calling McCollum “the new darling of the extreme homosexuals.”
But apparently dropping outlandish campaign ads (the attack related to McCollum’s support of a hate crimes bill) is not a reflection of character or integrity.
Here’s what McCollum told WESH in Orlando over the weekend:
“I never had any questions raised either before or after the election about Mel’s integrity or honesty or character, and I’ve had those questions raised about Rick Scott and they were raised very seriously. And it’s not something that would just idle in the campaign.
“There are still questions that are out there, I think unanswered questions that trouble me a great deal from his past, particularly at Columbia/HCA.”
There’s a word Republicans are no longer using when they talk about gubernatorial nominee Rick Scott: fraud.
Many in the Republican establishment backed Attorney General Bill McCollum in the primary as McCollum repeatedly pointed out Scott was CEO of Columbia/HCA when it settled criminal Medicare fraud charges by paying $1.7 billion.
But on Monday, the Republican establishment stood with Scott and touted him as a business leader that would create jobs.
Scott was with state lawmakers and party leaders at a unity rally in front of less than 100 people.
Asked about the whether he’ll be able to shake the fraud argument in the general election, Scott said, “It didn’t work for Bill McCollum.”
Dave Aronberg said he was proud today to endorse his Democratic primary opponent, Dan Gelber, in the attorney general race against Republican Pam Bondi. “Dan will bring needed reform to this office and restore its original mission of protecting Floridians,” Aronberg said in a statement.
Gelber said in a statement that he was “proud to have the support of my friend.”
In an e-mail addressed to friends Thursday night, Aronberg said he “will be taking a break from elected office…but this is not farewell. I will be back at the right time and the right opportunity to make a real difference on issues of public safety and consumer protection.”
UPDATE:Scott’s campaign sent out details for three “unity events” on Monday, but didn’t include details about who would be there. There is a “meeting with statesmen” in Tampa. Could those be some of the “Tallahassee insider” who were “crying in their cocktails” on Tuesday?
Here’s the schedule: 9:30 a.m., meeting with statesmen, University Club of Tampa; 2 p.m., Tampa unity event, Tampa Jet Center (tentative); 6 p.m., Orlando unity event, Marks Street Senior Center.
Sounds like the details are still being hammered out, but watch for Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Scott to announce a multi-day tour of the state early next week with the incoming GOP Senate and House bosses, Mike Haridopolos and Dean Cannon.
(You might remember Cannon and Haridopolos from this statewide fly-around a couple weeks ago. At this point, the tour will be missing Bill McCollum, sort of an important component for the whole unity thing…)
Scott initiated a conference call with the two former McCollum men on Thursday after he had a sit-down with Republican Party of Florida Chairman John Thrasher and a phone conversation with Republican Governor’s Association Chairman Haley Barbour, who diverted his Mississippi-to-Orlando flight on Tuesday after results showed Scott pulling off the upset.
We also hear a number of lobbyists and other high-ranking Republicans showed up at Scott’s Fort Lauderdale headquarters on Wednesday and Thursday hoping to play the broker in Scott’s group-hug with the GOP establishment.
Scott didn’t go for it, instead relying on his background as a mergers-and-acquisitions attorney and venture capitalist to negotiate his own path through the next two months.
Here are the counties that had the best and worst turnout on Election Day. (Parenthesis denote size of county in terms of number of registered voters.)
We’re not wild about posting campaign web videos on the blog. But we’ll make an exception here for a couple reasons.
One, is that for now, the focus on new media/direct media/online media/internet strategy approach will be modus operandi from Democratic CFO candidate Loranne Ausley in her bid against the better-funded Republican opponent, Palm Beach County’s own Jeff Atwater.
Two, is that Atwater turned to the Republican Party of Florida to respond to the video, a sign Atwater is going to wait as long as possible to publicly acknowledge this race.
From Attorney General Bill McCollum this morning on Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Scott:
“I still have serious questions and I have had them throughout the time that I’ve had the very brief acquaintanceship with Rick Scott about issues of his character, his integrity, his honesty, things that go back to Columbia/HCA,” McCollum said.
That’s how Florida Republican Party Chairman John Thrasher described Rick Scott’s gubernatorial campaign on Sunday in letter to “fellow Republicans.”
But heck, that’s just water under the bridge now that Scott is the party’s nominee. Right?
“We’re going to ask for his help raising money for grass-roots support and we’re going to find out where we can help him,” Thrasher said. “Everything is going to be fine.”
Thrasher was on his way today to Fort Lauderdale, home of Scott’s campaign headquarters. He and Scott will sit down for some meetings Thursday.
“We’re going to start putting our political plan together,” said Thrasher. “The election is behind us and we’re ready to move on. I’m optimistic about where we are.”
McCollum built a 32,000 cushion in the big five, but Scott made up that deficit and more by winning 54 of the remaining 62 counties.
And while the five biggest Republican counties account for about a quarter of all registered GOP voters, the biggest counties just didn’t turnout out like the rest of the state. I could tell you all the numbers, but it’s a lot easier to just check out the map this morning from the St. Pete Times.
Rain kept voter turnout low despite predictions of record-breaking participation, Secretary of State Dawn Roberts said after the polls closed this evening.
Roberts said she’s had no reports of systemic problems with voting equipment, long lines or other complaints that have plagued Florida since the protracted 2000 presidential election.
“It’s been a great day. It’s been a wet day. So a little slow,” Roberts told reporters during a brief press conference after the polls closed at 8 p.m.
A handful of voters in Palm Beach and Broward counties were given “No Party Affiliation” ballots and cast their votes before complaining to elections workers that they were unable to vote in the hotly contested gubernatorial primary between Attorney General Bill McCollum and Rick Scott or the Democratic U.S. Senate primary between U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek and Palm Beach millionaire Jeff Greene.
“That unfortunately happens every primary,” Roberts said. “It’s a training issue…Also, voters need to pay attention.”
She said voters should familiarize their sample ballots before going to their polling place and should alert workers before voting if they think they have the wrong ballot.
Nearly 1 million voters voted early or by absentee ballot, Roberts said.
Elections results are available online and should be finalized in by 11 p.m. or earlier if no problems arise.
UPDATE: Hackers didn’t limit their targets to candidates last night. Online thugs also penetrated the conservative Florida Family Policy Council website’s firewall, according to director John Stemberger. Hackers got into the organization’s page where voter guides were located and replaced the council’s donor banners with “bizarre images,” Stemberger said.
GOP attorney general hopeful Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp’s campaign website was attacked by hackers who got into the candidate’s calendar and e-mail, his campaign spokesman David Bishop said.
“We had suspicious behavior with our online calendar and email. Appointments would be canceled. Someone even called to send regrets for an event we accepted earlier in the day,” Bishop said.
The two are in a race too close to call against opponent Pam Bondi, whose website apparently remains unscathed.
It’s been a tough few months for Florida Republicans.
In the GOP gubernatorial primary, Rick Scott turned the scandals of his own party into a campaign issue. Bill McCollum won’t say if he’d support Scott as the party’s nominee.
So it shouldn’t be too surprising that the state party has abandoned plans for a unity event they were attempting to hold tomorrow in Tampa.
“We tossed around the idea for a couple unity events tomorrow, but it never came to fruition,” state party spokeswoman Katie Betta said. “It was too difficult to pull together not knowing what was going to happen tonight and where the candidates were going to be tomorrow.”
Betta stressed that it was a logistical issue and had nothing to do the potential of the bevy of state party leaders having to eat crow if their candidate, McCollum, loses to Scott tonight.
“Our responsibility is to elect Republican candidates,” Betta said. “We’ve opened our Victory offices and have the resources in place to help all of our candidates after the primary. At this point, Scott has chosen to not participate in that.
“But we hope to have a working relationship with whoever the nominee is,” she said.
Instead of a unity event tomorrow, the party will present its slate of statewide candidates at its fund-raising dinner in Sept. 10 in Orlando, where Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour will be the keynote speaker
UPDATE: More of the same ballot mix-ups are being reported in Palm Beach County and in Broward County, according to the state Division of Elections. There have been fewer than 10 instances reported in each county.
Oops. After the millions of dollars spent by GOP gubernatorial opponents Rick Scott and Attorney General Bill McCollum, at least two votes that could have gone their way won’t.
Looks like rain today across Florida as primary candidates make their last push before polls close today at 7 p.m. Here’s the forecasts for around the state today, courtesy of The Weather Channel:
With all 93 precincts reporting in Broward County, which makes up about 30 percent of congressional District 19, Democrat Ted Deutch got 53.8 percent to 42.8 percent for Republican Ed Lynch and 3.4 percent for no-party candidate Jim McCormick.
About one-third of Palm Beach County precincts have reported and Deutch has about 65 percent of the vote there.
The Associated Press has declared Deutch the winner and Deutch just gave a victory speech to hundreds of cheering supporters in Boca Raton.
The Associated Press, after looking at partial results that show a big lead for Democrat Ted Deutch, is calling Deutch the winner of the special congressional election to replace Robert Wexler.
Perhaps more authoritatively, Palm Beach County Commissioner Burt Aaronson just declared Deutch “our new congressman….Let me be the first to congratulate you on a wonderful victory.”
Aaronson is at a Deutch election night party at Mizner Park.
Palm Beach County Democratic Chairman Mark Alan Siegel, who early on the night of the Feb. 2 Democratic primary forecast “upwards of 80 percent” for Ted Deutch (he got 85.2 percent), is predicting Deutch will get more than 60 percent of the vote in Palm Beach County in today’s special general election.
“The forecast is mid-60s….63, 64 something like that,” said Siegel, who based his forecast on Democratic turnout at key precincts in Palm Beach County. He predicted a slightly lower percentage for Deutch in Broward County, which is about 30 percent of congressional District 19.
Former U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler never got below 65.6 percent in a general election in the district. Wexler stepped down in January to head a Middle East think tank.
Ted Deutch got 69.5 percent of the early vote in Palm Beach County to 29.6 percent for Republican Ed Lynch in the special election to replace Robert Wexler.
Absentee and precinct numbers for Palm Beach County haven’t been posted. Palm Beach County is about 70 percent of congressional District 19.
Combined with partial results from Broward County, Deutch has about 63 percent of the vote to 35 percent for Lynch and the remainder for no-party candidate Jim McCormick.
Results are starting to trickle in, so keep visiting the PostOnPolitics blog and PalmBeachPost.com
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