Murphy’s internal poll shows big early advantageby George Bennett | October 18th, 2013
The pollster for nationally targeted freshman Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Jupiter, says his client has strong job-approval scores and would handily defeat potential Republican challengers Carl Domino or Adam Hasner if an election were held today, according to a polling memo obtained by the Politics column.
The survey by Democratic pollster Keith Frederick, taken during the first week of the federal government shutdown, shows 57 percent of voters in Murphy’s Palm Beach-Treasure Coast swing district approving of the job he’s doing, with 30 percent disapproving. That includes a 52-to-39 percent approval score from independents. Among Republicans, 40 percent approve and 43 percent disapprove.
In hypothetical head-to-head tests, Murphy topped former state Rep. Domino and former state House majority leader Hasner by identical 52-to-25 percent margins. Domino opened a campaign in July. Hasner is not a candidate, but hasn’t ruled out running.
The poll of 300 voters was taken Oct. 6-8 and has a 5.6 percent margin of error. The sample was 43 percent Republican, 37 percent Democrat and 20 percent independent — a slightly more Republican tilt than the District 18 registration figures, but probably in line with turnout patterns in a non-presidential election year.
The district went 51.5 percent for Mitt Romney in 2012 while Murphy edged Republican incumbent Allen West. In the Murphy campaign poll, 48 percent of District 18 voters approve of President Barack Obama‘s job performance and 48 percent disapprove.