New poll shows Hasner, Frankel in dead heat; West with 12-point lead over Murphyby Andrew Abramson | October 8th, 2012
While Democrat Lois Frankel has a big statistical advantage in District 22 based on party registration, a new poll released today by StPetePolls.org shows Frankel in a dead heat with Republican Adam Hasner.
The poll, conducted Wednesday through Friday (much of it after the presidential debate) shows Hasner at 44.6 percent and Frankel at 44.3 percent with 11.2 percent undecided. The poll has a 4.9 percent margin of error. This comes after Hasner’s campaign reported raising $650,000 in the most recent quarter.
Seven other congressional races were polled across the state with incumbent Republican Allen West holding a 52.6 percent to 40.6 percent lead over Democrat Patrick Murphy in District 18 with 6.8 percent undecided and a margin of error of 3.3 percent. That poll included double the amount of the normal sample size “because of how close the CD18 race had been reported,” according to a spokesman for StPetePolls.org.
All eight of the congressional polls surveyed only residents who had voted in the last four years and said they were planning to vote on Nov. 6.
The poll break down showed that while only 9.5 percent of 147 registered Republicans said they planned to vote for Frankel, 15.9 percent of the 176 Democrats polled said they would vote for Hasner. Frankel was leading Hasner 44.8 percent to 31.3 percent of 67 independent voters with 23.9 percent undecided.
The West-Murphy poll also had more Democrats supporting the Republican than Republicans supporting the Democrat. Of 350 Democrats polled, 15.1 percent said they would vote for West. Of 406 Republicans polled, 7.9 percent said they would vote for Murphy. West led Murphy 50.4 percent to 43.4 percent among 113 independent voters surveyed, with 6.2 percent undecided.