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Democratic polling memo says Murphy tops West, 52-43

by George Bennett | October 1st, 2012

At least one partisan pollster is very wrong about the congressional District 18 race.

A few days after U.S. Rep. Allen West‘s pollster released a memo saying the incumbent holds a 52-to-41 percent lead over Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy, the Democratic House Majority PAC released a memo today saying Murphy leads West by a 52-to-43 percent margin.

The memo by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (as is typical of both Republican and Democratic internal polls, a memo but not the poll itself was released) says its sample for Palm Beach-Treasure Coast congressional District 18 was 44 percent Republican and 37 percent Democrat — a heavier Republican tilt than the actual district, where Republicans have a 2.2-percent registration edge.

The poll has a 4.9 percent margin of error. West has an underwater approval rating (40 percent positive, 47 percent negative) while Murphy is a little better than even (33 percent positive, 29 percent negative).

West’s poll says Mitt Romney is leading President Obama by 7 points in the district. The new Democratic poll says Obama holds a 7-point lead over Romney.

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23 Responses to “Democratic polling memo says Murphy tops West, 52-43”

  1. Searcher Says:

    Well, SOMEONE has to be right! I guess we get to wait until November to see who was fibbing….

  2. HankS Says:

    This is predictable nonsense from the Democratic party. Yesterday several people pointed out the Kimball poll was extremely skewed favoring Democrats. Today Democrats release a poll skewed toward Republicans with the South Beach brawler on top. Another day another phony poll.

    Congressman West has repeatedly called for open public debates with his challenger. So far the Murphy camp has agreed to a ‘forum’ with the leftist League and a ‘closed set’ interview at WPTV NewsChannel 5. Neither is a true public debate. Patrick Murphy needs to stop hiding and go toe-to-toe with Congressman West.

  3. Franklin Says:

    HankS you just can’t handle the truth. When all the polls, including one conducted by a GOP firm, say that Obama and Murphy are up. People are tired of West’s bullying!

  4. David S. Levine, Hobe Sound Says:

    Another day, another Democ-rat Party lie.

    There is simply no way Allen West’s Democ-rat opponent could be ahead in a poll skewed toward Republicans or independents. Nor is there any way in which Allen West could be underwater on approval ratings in the district as a whole.

  5. HankS Says:

    So much for GOP pollster as reported by the Post. From the pollsters website:

    The Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, the political division of Peter D. Hart Research Associates, is one of the most respected and successful political polling firms in the country for Democratic candidates. Garin-Hart-Yang also has been the lead pollster on the influential Women’s Monitor national polling projects for EMILY’s List over the past four election cycles.

  6. Mary Ann Russell Says:

    I truly believe that the polls are skewed. How can it be that so many Americans feel that Obama is taking us in the wrong direction, his foreign policy is wrong, the economy is worse since he took office, he is losing to independents and military voters and yet his poll numbers for reelection are up there. Just does not equate in my mind. As for Patrick Murphy – again, other than a few advertisements on television, he has not been out and about in the Treasure Coast, he won’t debate Congressman West, he has never come out and explained his positions, his entire campaign has been based on trashing Congressman West, yet he is leading in the polls. Again, I find it difficult to believe.

  7. Polly Forestier Says:

    More propaganda in these polls..last straw to win but it’s not going to happen. Have never seen Murphy in person and West is all over the place! He’s not afraid to say what he knows to be true and Murphy and his people only know how to slander and distort…the people of 18 aren’t buying it. Go West

  8. Legal Eagle Says:

    Good morning all,

    Does anyone here know of a good plumber?
    We picked up a golden retriever from the pound on friday for my daughters birthday. and aparantly last night or early this morning, he died. My daughter was the first one up and tried to flush the dog down the toilet just like her goldfish last year. Well needless to say the dog backed up the toilet and flooded half the house. We would be very gratful with any help.

    The only thing I don’t understand is, How does a 65 pound 6 year old carry a 80 pound dogs corpse and stuffs it in a toilet?

  9. Legal Eagle Says:

    Good News! It wasn’t the dog she flushed, it was a couch cushion! She was affraid to tell me what she did so she hid the dog in her closet and lied about it. Imagine how suprised I was when I opened that closet!

    Still need a plumber though

  10. Legal Eagle - REAL ONE Says:

    I don’t know anything about a dog or a couch cushion. Someone(s) are posting with my name but I do have something to say…

    “You’ve got to be kidding.”

    That’s the only rational reaction to seeing this enormous plug.

    Standing about 5-1/2″ high (5″ insertable), it measures 2-1/4″ in diameter at its widest point. That’s more than half an inch wider than the Medium, which itself is a formidable challenge to insert. This “large” plug is really, seriously, large.

    The material is a squeezy plastic that has some give and flexibility. The base has a footprint of 2″ x 3-1/4″ which may not be particularly comfortable to wear for any length of time. On the other hand, anyone who can manage to get this monster inserted may not be concerned about a minor bit of irritation from the base.

    This would definitely be something to work up to, and even then only for someone who wants a serious challenge. I would urge anyone reading this to make sure they can comfortably accommodate the medium sized plug before even thinking about this one! It is a doozy.

  11. half pint Says:

    Legal Eagle: why are you dragging me in by the shorthairs and accuse me of being a “retarded rabid progressive liberal”?

    You act like its the 50′s where it doesn’t require 2 incomes to sustain a household; only an idiot thinks that way- and you just proved it.

    Selling a joint would require one year hard labor-Seriously? You would be the first to bithc and moan about needless tax dollars being wasted on that type of offense; murderers get 7-10 years, rapists even less- so where is the logic in jailing someone for selling “a joint”. There is no logic, again you prove you’re an idiot.

  12. OBIWAN Says:

    @ half pint,
    Where the F*** do you get your info?! You come moseying in here with your spurs just a jangling and you want to sell me some sort of snake oil? Well guess what sister?! Homey don’t play dat! My balogna has not one, but 2 names Chief! I’ve got a hankering for a hunk of knowledge and you aint the one to fly me to the moon! You sir, need to take your nerf ball and fruit by the foot and GTFO! Wellington is the place to be to get some whitetrash strange.

    BTW I’m freshly shorn, naval_to_anus

  13. Grant Stoome Says:

    Some of these comments are plain stupid. What on earth are you talking about “Legal Eagle – REAL ONE”? What plug are you talking about? An outlet or something?
    Anyway, I’ve never used any type of restraints or tied anyone up but I’ve always found it exciting and I purchased this product in the hopes my wife would let me use it on her. To my surprise she did and she loved it. She said being restrained really intensified everything for her and this was a great product for the first time. Having her wrists tied to her thighs were just restrictive enough to add some spice but not make her feel totally helpless. She can’t wait to try it again.

  14. Legal Eagle - OTHER ONE Says:

    Grant Stoome,
    You have some nerve! You call out people for making “plain stupid” comments and make a stupid comment yourself! You see I brought this because it said it was from Japan and I tried many of the product from local already. I does find a different between the one could be found in local store then this one. Although the price is quite expensive, it does have many different function which is good to have fun with. The “splash” function is also something really exciting to me. I love it and used it many times already.

  15. tornado Says:

    HAHAHAHAHA! What a crock! This is so not true and Murphy WISHES IT WERE!

    West is wiping the floor with him and when you refuse to debate a pro, you have to grasp at straws to get attention. Gee, I wonder why the DCCC pulled his funding? He can’t be trusted!

  16. Sam Says:

    Yesterday the republicans whined about the kimball poll – a republican operation – that it skewed sample towards democrats. Today another pollster heavily skews towards GOP and they’re still whining. face it – your man is going down

  17. Gloria Schmidt Says:

    The ad by the West team presented the facts. Congressman West is a true leader and will win this election !!

  18. LOL @ West Says:

    LOL @ Allen West!

    He made a “47%” statement before even Romney did. What a savage joke on the Middle Class, these Republicans. So let’s look at just some of Allen West’s comments as measured by the FACTS.

    ALLEN WEST’S RECORD AT POLITIFACT:

    http://www.politifact.com/personalities/allen-west/statements/

    “Currently we have some 40-45% of Americans who are not paying any taxes.” = MOSTLY FALSE

    “If you look at the application for a security clearance, I have a clearance that even the president of the United States cannot obtain because of my background.” = PANTS ON FIRE LIE

    “We had an amendment in the health care law that said the federal government is going to take over education.” = FALSE

    “China owns about 29 percent of (the U.S.) debt.” = FALSE

    “This is the first time in the history that we’ve had the raising of a debt limit also with spending cuts.” = FALSE

    “In the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, it was the Democrats who cut $500 billion from Medicare. And they also put in place the Independent Payment Advisory Board, 15 unelected bureaucrats, which will be making decisions about health care for our seniors and for all Americans.” = MOSTLY FALSE

    The EPA “wants to hire 230,000 new government regulators that will cost the taxpayer $21 billion.” = FALSE

    About 78 to 81 House Democrats “are members of the Communist Party. … It’s called the Congressional Progressive Caucus.” = PANTS ON FIRE LIE

    An “Obamacare slush fund” paid to spay and neuter dogs and cats, then counted it as an “anti-obesity campaign.” = FALSE

    WHY THE NEED TO *LIE* REPEATEDLY TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, Rep West?!?!?!

    Hmmm… Yeah.

    VOTE for PATRICK MURPHY and vote early.

  19. Murphy is the real deal Says:

    Vote for Murphy.. we need more liberal progressives to finish off what’s left of our economy so the US can join Japan in a 20 year recession.

    Vote Early, Vote Often

  20. tornado Says:

    ROFL! Murphy and the DCCC wishes this were the case. West is ahead, they know it and they are grasping at every straw they can find to try and sabotage him. Too bad the American people have heard this made up story in the past ad know what a veteran war hero is, that would be Allen West.

  21. Heather Says:

    Just check to see who Johnson, Wexler and Deutch paid off and who Aronberg threatened…. maybe that is how they got those results

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