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Murphy touts GOP poll that shows him edging West; sample skewed toward Democrats

by George Bennett | September 30th, 2012

Democratic congressional challenger Patrick Murphy today is touting a Republican consulting firm’s poll that shows him with a 49-to-45 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Allen West, R-Palm Beach Gardens.

But a look at the partisan breakdown in the poll by Massachusetts-based Kimball Political Consulting raises some questions. Although Republicans have a slight registration edge in Palm Beach-Treasure Coast District 18 (38.4 percent Republican, 36.2 percent Democrat, according to the Florida Division of Elections) the respondents to the survey were 44.6 percent Democratic and 33.3 percent Republican — an 11.3-percent Democratic edge.

The poll also shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by 7 points in the district, which went 51 percent for Obama in 2008.

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36 Responses to “Murphy touts GOP poll that shows him edging West; sample skewed toward Democrats”

  1. Scott Says:

    “skewed”?? nice of you to use that term. Read the whole report: ”

    Survey data was not weighted based on political, gender and geographical demographics of the district because the sample itself properly represented the
    parameters of Florida’s 18 congressional district using voter registration numbers from the Florida Secretary of State’s office.”

    Therefore, it was not skewed to a 50/50 d/r balance, since that isn’t representative of the electorate. Another great reporting job for the Post.

  2. What going on here? Says:

    An ad depicting Murphy as a drunken bum rolling around in beer and his own urine outside of a gay bar. He cusses out a policeman ,then the next day, the conservative people of Palm Beach over the age of 45 vote unanimously for this bum. This is another stunt by a fool named Patrick Murphy. God, please let November 7, 2012 come soon.

  3. jebamoni4 Says:

    The Tea Party Mafia West should get out of the state!!

  4. George Says:

    I’m a Republican in my 60′s and I’m voting for Murphy! Allen West is way too extreme for todays political climate. He’s so divisive, and he calls women like my wife, femanazis! He says the femanazis have neutered the men in America. Well, I’m sorry that Alan West fells neutered, but we’re voting for the Democrat this time around!

  5. What going on here? Says:

    Once again, this poll is not real, just as the 4 debates that Murphy says he requested are not real. Murphy is done and he knows it. This Murphy is an empty suit at best, a knave at worst.

  6. Jack P. Says:

    Yet another poll being cebrated by the media that is skewed one way with the sample. November 6th, cannot come fast enough!

  7. Dan Says:

    Allen West has a lot of nerve trying to discredit Murphy for an indiscretion as a 19 year old teenager, when at the same time he was resigning from the Army for conducting smock execution of an Iraqi Officer after allowing the men under his direction to beat the man. Facing a court martial and 11 years in prison he resigned, paid a $5,000 fine and took his pension rather than attempt to defend his actions!

  8. Jack P. Says:

    And George ‘in his 60′s’….

    You are not and have never been a Republican. Your hyperbole tips it off.

  9. Jack P. Says:

    Dan:

    Allan West did more that day to defend the country (and his men) than you have done your whole life.

  10. Emil Blatz Says:

    The West ad is very powerful. It ends with “you decide.” Which punctuates the story and makes the contrast very clear. Filtering out all the noise on sample weighting, I am confident West will win.

  11. Forgone Conclusion Says:

    Allen West is a loud mouth do nothing Congressman who doesn’t respond to his constituents correspondence, among other things. His claim to fame is his big mouth which gets him lots of publicity but accomplishes absolutely nothing. He is part of the GOP/Teabagger war on women and West always votes in favor of the 1%ers and never supports working people or the middle class. West can’t win in district 22 so he cuts and runs to another district which is more to his liking. It does not appear to be working. ANYBODY but West in November!

  12. Dan Says:

    Jack: According to a 2004 account in The New York Times, West let the soldiers under his command beat the Iraqi man, whom West believed was involved in an attempt on his life. (No evidence was ever found implicating the man). Then, he staged a mock execution:

    Soon, the soldiers began striking and shoving Mr. Hamoodi. They were not instructed to do so by Colonel West but they were not stopped, either, they said. ‘I didn’t know it was wrong to hit a detainee,” a 20-year-old soldier from Daytona Beach said at the hearing. Eventually, the colonel and his soldiers moved Mr. Hamoodi outside, and threatened him with death. Colonel West said he fired a warning shot in the air and began counting down from five. He asked his soldiers to put Mr. Hamoodi’s head in a sand-filled barrel usually used for clearing weapons. At the end of his count, Colonel West fired a shot into the barrel, angling his gun away from the Iraqi’s head, he testified.

  13. Jack P. Says:

    Dan:

    You lost me at ‘New York Times’

  14. Ruby Says:

    George-You are really going for a drunked rather than stick with someone in your own party? Shame on you!Murphy has daddy paying all his expenses-wonder if he’s doing anything on his own. Buying a vote…how original. Thanks, but I’ll stick with Allen.

  15. Florida Guest Says:

    This article announces the poll was skewed to the Democrats. I guess honesty is the best policy. The way I look at it…West is really beating the drunk one Murphy. Hope daddy can hand him the election..if he has to really do it on his own…well one has to wonder?This Independent is proud to vote for Allen West. He is a patriot. Can’t say the same for Murphy.

  16. Mike Says:

    I cannot believe the Post stepped up and called this poll a sham. I think they might actually endorse West in this race. They never endorse a republican except when the democrat is unmistakably incompetent.

  17. David S. Levine, Hobe Sound Says:

    This poll is a lie! It skews the percentage of Democ-rats to plus 11 and the partisan edge in this district is Republican. Once again the Democ-rats lie even when they don’t have to and the lie is so easily exposed.

  18. HankS Says:

    I guess the Murphy camp was freaked out by Rep. West’s double-digit lead and needed a quick comeback. The ‘pollster’ used robocalls without human interaction and decided on a sample with an 11.3% Democratic edge! This is total nonsense. The pollster’s comment that the sample represents registration data is simply not true — Bennett has it correct. Check out the website for the pollster — they advertise polls for $1999! What a joke.

  19. fairandbalanced Says:

    Sure it was skewed. The poll was a robo call poll. Anyone knows that Republicans aren’t apt to waste their time talking to a recording. Since the poll was a robo call poll it is very obvious that the respondents would be two to one Democrats.

  20. florida girl7 Says:

    This is so ridiculous that it is hard to answer. I am sick of hearing about redistricting. Democrats take a lesson redistricting is because of the census, you know, we do this every 10 years, if you had any brains you would know that. Murphy is from Broward county and came to our district, by renting in Jupiter. end of that conversation.
    We were district 16, now we are District 18, West was in district 22, the biggest part of his district is now in district 18, so West did not change he could have stayed in 22 or since Tom Rooney left the district, and a lot of his constituents are in district 18 it was the logical place for Congressman West to come to. I like Tom Rooney, sorry to see him leave, but I could not be more than pleased to see Allen West represent us.

  21. moishe Says:

    Alan West is a war hero. Murphy is a cop bashing drunk punk. No brainer.

  22. Reality Check Says:

    Murphy couldn’t shine West’s boots.

    ..but like the Ad says, “You Decide”.

    LOL

  23. Sam Says:

    I see – so a GOP polling company skewed this poll in favor of patrick murphy, the democrat candidate. lol you guys are really getting creative

  24. Jim Says:

    I’m not a resident of either the 22nd, 18th, 16th or the 106th. But, I and sensible like me see West for what he is. A real life facist residing in a democratic country. Does he contribute anything but fear and hate? Doesn’t appear so!

  25. SF Says:

    After being exposed to West over the past 2 years, I cannot, for the life of me understand how he was ever elected. He is a Nutjob personified.

    First Casey Anthony gets acquitted, now it looks like Allen West is going to be re-elected. Some of you Floridians are really unique. And I live in Texas!

  26. Carol Ottinger Says:

    Chances are West will be re-elected because he has the nutbaggers backing him and of course secret money donors. He toots his military career 24-7 (always neglecting to say he was kicked out) and Murphy is new and little known. But the fact that Murphy is gaining on West should have West a bit concerned that maybe he just isn’t “all that” after all.

  27. Carol Ottinger Says:

    Seniors apparently don’t care about their Social Security and Medicare as much as they claim or would not be voting Republican, for sure.

  28. Russell Dee Says:

    Murphy needs to make a commercial telling the story about Allen West’s criminal misconduct in the military and how Allen West was forced out of the military.

  29. Know the Facts Says:

    1. Were these LIKELY VOTERS or just REGISTERED VOTERS? (plenty of people are ‘registered’ but they do not vote)

    2. Any poll from MA is suspect…a heavily democrat state.

    3. A perponderance of democrats surveyed over republicans again weighs the poll toward democrats.

    4. What were the ages of those polled? Their gender? More men or women?

    5. Were the people polled over cell phone or land phone?

    6. And finally, WHAT QUESTIONS were asked?

    When that information is included; then the reading public can conclude the poll results are pretty accurate.

  30. kelly Says:

    Nobody caree what PM did when he was 19. We do care about what he will do if elected. We already know what AW did in office: nothing. So Murphy deserves a chance.

  31. Mac Says:

    I love it! All these Republicans upset over a Republican poll. Boo-hoo.

  32. LOL @ West Says:

    LOL @ Allen West!

    He made a “47%” statement before even Romney did. What a savage joke on the Middle Class, these Republicans. So let’s look at just some of Allen West’s comments as measured by the FACTS.

    ALLEN WEST’S RECORD AT POLITIFACT:

    http://www.politifact.com/personalities/allen-west/statements/

    “Currently we have some 40-45% of Americans who are not paying any taxes.” = MOSTLY FALSE

    “If you look at the application for a security clearance, I have a clearance that even the president of the United States cannot obtain because of my background.” = PANTS ON FIRE LIE

    “We had an amendment in the health care law that said the federal government is going to take over education.” = FALSE

    “China owns about 29 percent of (the U.S.) debt.” = FALSE

    “This is the first time in the history that we’ve had the raising of a debt limit also with spending cuts.” = FALSE

    “In the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, it was the Democrats who cut $500 billion from Medicare. And they also put in place the Independent Payment Advisory Board, 15 unelected bureaucrats, which will be making decisions about health care for our seniors and for all Americans.” = MOSTLY FALSE

    The EPA “wants to hire 230,000 new government regulators that will cost the taxpayer $21 billion.” = FALSE

    About 78 to 81 House Democrats “are members of the Communist Party. … It’s called the Congressional Progressive Caucus.” = PANTS ON FIRE LIE

    An “Obamacare slush fund” paid to spay and neuter dogs and cats, then counted it as an “anti-obesity campaign.” = FALSE

    WHY THE NEED TO *LIE* REPEATEDLY TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, Rep West?!?!?!

    Hmmm… Yeah.

    VOTE for PATRICK MURPHY and vote early.

  33. tornado Says:

    LOL, this is not a Republican Poll. This is a polling company and anyone can pay to have a poll done. They sampled from mostly dem areas and even their explanation in the pdf is far fetched at best.

    VOTE FOR ALLEN WEST!

  34. child abuse victims Says:

    New Florida Child Abuse Mandatory Reporting law fs 39.201 is a SHAM! It turns the individual reports back over the local Sheriff’s Office for their discretion to investigate as the see fit. This is what happened in the Green Isle Boys Ranch Rapes when the local sheriff protected his friend the juvenile rapist!
    Florida Lake County Sheriff Gary Borders and his friends ran the Green Isle Boys Ranch at the same time Jerry Sandusky and his friends ran the Second Mile. For over twenty years this place was a house of horror’s for the little boy victims of rapes – most under the ages of 15 years. The sheriff covered up all the reports of rapes and abuse of the boys. The ones he could not keep hidden from the public he had the help from 5th Circuit State Attorney Brad King and the judiciary to help him cover them up! When the last five rapes finally became public he and his friends covered up his cover ups. State Attorney Brad King faked a prosecution and an unidentified Circuit Judge faked an appearance and sentencing of the rapist. This rapist is on the street s of Citrus County , Fl and continuing to abuse his male lovers one of whom has filed a dating violence injunction against him. Florida authorities including Federal authorities in Florida continue to cover up these abuses and to this day not one person has ever been sent to prison for these untold numbers of sex abuse crimes committed against the little boys of Green Isle Ranch.

    http://panamaed.wordpress.com/2012/09/17/2009-case-5-children-brutally-raped/

  35. Rashad Says:

    This past week, Trump offered to give $5 million to a charity of Obama’s choice if he releases his college and passport records. Obama responded by telling his own joke about him and Trump fighting while growing up in Kenya. http://www.bit.ly/WRFiT5

  36. comcosystems Says:

    Murphy touts GOP poll that shows him edging West; sample skewed toward Democrats | Post on Politics is a superb share. Thanks for this article.

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