Allen West’s internal poll says he leads Murphy, 52-41by George Bennett | September 27th, 2012
After months of refusing to share or discuss internal polling, Republican U.S. Rep. Allen West‘s campaign today released a memo from its pollster saying West leads Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy by a 52-to-41 percent margin.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee last month said its polling showed the race a virtual tie, with Murphy holding a 47-to-46 percent lead within the margin of error. Murphy’s campaign released a poll in May showing a 45-to-45 percent tie.
The memo by West pollster Gene Ulm (neither side has released actual internal polls, only memos describing them) says the survey of 400 likely voters in Palm Beach-Treasure Coast District 18 was conducted Monday and Tuesday and has a 4.9 percent margin of error. The sample was 40 percent Republican and 38 percent Democrat, roughly in line with the 38.5-to-36.2 registration advantage the GOP holds in the district.
Ulm’s memo says 34 percent of voters view Murphy favorably and 33 percent unfavorably. The memo says Mitt Romney leads President Obama by a 51-to-44 percent margin in the district. Obama carried the district with 51 percent in 2008, the same percentage he got statewide.
Murphy consultant Eric Johnson dismissed the West poll as “cooked” and “skewed” and pointed to the 7-point Romney edge as evidence. Most statewide polls show Obama with a slight lead, and Johnson said District 18 is continuing to track with statewide trends in the presidential race.