Obama holds 51-45 Florida lead in new Quinnipiac poll; Nelson leads Mack
by George Bennett | August 1st, 2012
Yes, that’s former WPTV Channel 5 reporter and anchor Tim Malloy, who took his talents to Quinnipiac University in 2010.
President Obama holds a 51-to-45 percent lead over Mitt Romney in Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll that shows voters agreeing with Obama’s call for tax hikes on the wealthy and having some doubts about Romney’s experience heading the private equity firm Bain Capital.
Obama also holds a 6-point lead in Ohio and an 11-point advantage in Pennsylvania in the latest Quinnipiac swing-state roundup for The New York Times and CBS News.
Quinnipiac’s last Florida poll in late June showed Obama with a 45-to-41 percent lead. The new poll is the first time Obama’s support has topped 50 percent in Florida.
The latest poll, which has a 2.9 percent margin of error, also shows Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson leading likely Republican challenger Connie Mack by a 47-to-40 percent margin.
Voters disapprove of the way Gov. Rick Scott is handling his job by a 52-to-36 percent margin.
Obama is viewed favorably by 50 percent and unfavorably by 46 percent of Florida voters, while Romney has a 41/42 favorable/unfavorable score.
Obama’s job approval and disapproval scores are both 48 percent in the latest poll. His approval scores in Florida have consistently been underwater since May 2011, when he had a positive rating shortly after the raid that killed Osama bin Laden.
Obama has made three trips to Florida over the past two months and will campaign in Winter Park, near Orlando, on Thursday. His campaign has criticized Romney’s experience at Bain Capital and blasted the presumptive nominee for not releasing multiple years of income tax returns.
When voters were asked if Romney “the right kind of business experience to get the economy creating jobs again or is Romney’s kind of business experience too focused on making profits,” 42 percent of Floridians said he has the right experience and 48 percent said he was too focused on profits.
Fifty-three percent of Florida voters say a presidential candidate should release multiple years of tax returns, with 19 percent agreeing with Romney that one or two years is enough and 23 percent saying it doesn’t matter.
Obama’s call for higher taxes on households earning more than $250,000 is supported by 58 percent of Florida voters and opposed by 37 percent.
August 1st, 2012 at 9:07 am
Where do they get these numbers? I would gaurentee that they polled members in a Democratic club meeting, or maybe in Harlem where the color of skin is more important than the welfare of our nation.
No, I am not racist, I speak the truth.
August 1st, 2012 at 9:22 am
Enough is enough, your statement pretty much confirmed how uneducated you are.
August 1st, 2012 at 9:46 am
It should come as no surprise that the Post would publish numbers like this. Obama is going to lose big, he will not carry Florida and he will not carry Virginia or Ohio. He is a dead man walking and the DNC knows it, that is why they are taking the desperate step of giving Clinton such a big role at their convention. It is amazing how they are grasping and reaching for anything to try to save Obama. Clinton was so dissmissive and disrespectful of Obama during the last campaign that it really makes Obama look like a pitiful little man to allow Clinton such a visible role at the convention. Good riddance to both of them come November.
August 1st, 2012 at 9:49 am
What’s funnier? The poll results or the remark that Tim Malloy has talent. Arrogance should not be confused as “talent,” Mr. Blogger.
August 1st, 2012 at 9:53 am
Quinnipiac always over samples Democrats by 11–12% to fit the requirements of the buyers of the poll…In this case CBS-TV and the New York Times…Romney is in every race and needs to win 2 of the 3 states “The Iron Triangle” of Fla-Ohio-Pa to get to 270 electoral votes. He is poised to do so.
August 1st, 2012 at 9:54 am
And remember those polls come from likely voters, not those from that 18-25 age group who voted for Obama in 2008 and thought that was enough, so they didn’t show up at the polls in 2010 leading to the rise of the Tea Party which has driven the Republican Party even further to the Right.Any way you look at it after 3 and a half years of doing everything in their power to scuttle Obama’s presidency, they are in serious trouble. In fact without the Citizen’s United Decision this race wouldn’t be close.
August 1st, 2012 at 9:54 am
Let’s take a look at the partisan breakdown (D/R/I) in the sample data for each state, and compare them to 2008 and 2010 exit polling:
Florida: CBS/NYT 36/27/32, 2008 37/34/29, 2010 36/36/29
Ohio: CBS/NYT 35/27/32, 2008 39/31/30, 2010 36/37/28
Pennsylvania: CBS/NYT 38/32/26, 2008 44/37/18, 2010 40/37/23
The CBS/NYT model has Democrats a +9 in Florida when in 2008 they were only a +3 and an even split in the 2010 midterms. Ohio’s sample has exactly the split in 2008 (D+8), which is nine points better than Democrats did in the midterms. Pennsylvania’s numbers (D+6) come closest to a rational predictive model, somewhere between 2008′s D+7 and 2010′s D+3, but still looking mighty optimistic for Democratic turnout.
In other words, these polls are entirely predictive if one believes that Democrats will outperform their turnout models from the 2008 election in Florida and Ohio. That would require a huge boost in Democratic enthusiasm and a sharp dropoff in Republican enthusiasm — which is exactly the opposite that Gallup found last week.
August 1st, 2012 at 9:55 am
yea sure he does. Right. Everyone loves Barry. He’s done a great job improving the economy, NOT!
August 1st, 2012 at 9:58 am
Obama will win all the swing states if Romney doesn’t release his last seven years tax filings, he was doubted before his selection as the Conservatives choice as a presidential candidate even by moderate republicans, then you add in all his flip flops on everything from women’s rights to gays.
The GOP talking heads have used every move they can to block this presidents agenda in the hopes that an 8.5% unemployment rate will be his downfall, but the house today will be voting to block his payroll tax plan by adding in everyone including the rich, and the people will reject the GOP in November for this dirty cheap trick.
The right wing extremist/tea party will be turned away by the voters for fear of losing their rights as American citizens.
August 1st, 2012 at 10:02 am
What a load of crap! The PBP always spews this type of garbage around election time! Why don,t they report that Odummy wants defense contractors not to inform 1.5 million defense workers that as of January they could lose their jobs due to Odummies policy! That once again he wants to make his own laws, and wait till after the election! Why does this half breed think he has done such a great job! He’s had four years to do something, and all he’s done is give our country away to illeagls, raise our debt with his useless stimulas bailouts! Oh yeah,Lets not forget Odummy care! Another perk for all the Mexicans, Guats, and Hatians. He sure as hell isn’t my President! I’m an American!!
August 1st, 2012 at 10:12 am
@ Linda- So tell me why you think the tea Party is so extreme. Their stance is actually stunningly simple…less taxes,ess government, and more personal responsibility. That doesn’t sound extreme at all. Why does that scare you so much? It’s the more personal responsibility thing isn’t it? All of you liberals are afraid of being responsible for your own actions and well being. Having to take personal responsibility frightens you to death. The democrats and their liberal media bed mates are the lowest form of life on this planet.
August 1st, 2012 at 10:16 am
@ Jim Jones
I absolutely believe those numbers BUT can you tell me where you got them.
I need to prove it to some UN-believers
Thanks
August 1st, 2012 at 10:40 am
Real World
goto http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1781#States
then click on each states demographic summary.
August 1st, 2012 at 11:53 am
Polls: did the pollster poll REGISTERED VOTERS (registered voters won’t necessarily vote in an election) or LIKELY VOTERS (likely voters have demonstrated that they do vote regularly)?
How many polled were registered or likely DEMOCRAT voters
compared to how many polled registered or likely REPUBLICAN voters
or compared to registered INDEPENDENT or likely Independent voters?
That should ALWAYS be clarified when reporting poll numbers..ALWAYS!
Crafting questions on polling. The way a pollster PHRASES a question CAN and DOES SWAY the response.
ALWAYS post the questions asked.
One can’t accept polling from either party without DEFINITE information on WHO was polled and WHAT questions were asked.
ALWAYS Considered that when reading and hearing about poll numbers.
August 1st, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Expect an October surprise from President Obama.
VP Joe Biden, has been bumped by the democrats in favor of Bill Clinton giving the nomination speech.
Nominating Obama AND his wife Hillary Clinton.
August 1st, 2012 at 12:08 pm
“Where do they get these numbers? I would gaurentee that they polled members in a Democratic club meeting, or maybe in Harlem where the color of skin is more important than the welfare of our nation.
No, I am not racist, I speak the truth.”
Response:
“Enough is enough, your statement pretty much confirmed how uneducated you are.”
1. Democrats WILL vote for Obama
2. Blacks WILL vote for Obama (over 90%)
That HAS been PROVEN in the polls.
That is NOT an uneducated statement from that poster.
Some people only see and read what they want to see and read. They are polluted, blinded by hate.
August 1st, 2012 at 12:11 pm
10 YEARS! 10 F**KING YEARS! Of NOT PAYING HIS TAXES!
And here’s the BEST Part? The Romney Camp, or should I say The ROB – me Camp!, HAS NOT DENIED IT!
And STILL…..The Morons will VOTE for him out of HATERED for The President!
Well, as I’ve learned in Life : REAP WHAT YOU SOW!
August 1st, 2012 at 12:16 pm
Atlanta voters, heavily democrat, voted down, rejected a 10 yr, 1 percent sales tax for a $7.2 transportation project.
That’s a democrat dominated city and the voters rejected the increase.
The people are tired of the government dipping into their personal monies during a horrible, no-good, disgusting economy.
August 1st, 2012 at 12:26 pm
First, Obama says Romney is a felon.
Really?
Then the IRS and certainly the DOJ (under Eric Holder) would be filing charges. They wouldn’t let that slide by.
Then, Obama says Romney hasn’t paid taxes.
Really?
The IRS and the DOJ would be filing charges if Romney did anything wrong.
There is no proof of these charges.
It’s the continued lies perpetrated by the ugly democrats.
That is exactly why we need change. The hate will continue with another 4 years of Obama.
Obama has spewed hate toward people who don’t agree with him politically, he has divided the nation, instead of uniting it. No one can deny that.
President Obama is a divisionist. He derides his own country. A negative person during his entire presidency. He has never shown the ability to work with others.
Obama = divisionist
August 1st, 2012 at 12:32 pm
I believe these new poll numbers. Florida is not to be confused with it’s Bible-belt, backward conservative neighbors directly to it’s north (Alabama, Georgia….with the exception of Atlanta). Although I’m sure that Rick Scott, our criminal governor and his goon, Pam Bondi, will try to skew the election like the Republicans did in 2000, I’m sure the poll Police here will make sure that doesn’t happen again. If Florida does get hijacked again and goes “red”, I can always pick up the phone and call U-Haul and get myself out of this place so I won’t have to suffer the embarrassment of living in an uneducated “red state”.
August 1st, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Tim, give me a call. I’ll help you pack.
August 1st, 2012 at 12:42 pm
@Tim – Please call me in November because I will be glad to help you pack up and move out. You will love it with your libtard criminal friends in Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, New York or wherever you will be moving to. I can’t wait!
August 1st, 2012 at 12:53 pm
To those who will help me move if Florida goes “Huckabee” I will gladly take you up on that. I’ll pay you $20/hour, but will not be moving to the crime-ridden hellholes you mentioned….more like Seattle or Portland…….have visited there and it’s like a completely different United States……educated, SAFE, MUCH higher quality of life than anywhere in “The South”.
August 1st, 2012 at 1:18 pm
Tim, I hear you loud and clear, the south is nothing but ignorant, my kids are becoming poor white trash with the lack of education here, Seattle and Oregon are the places to live in safe and educated places!!! the south is full of uneducated bible trash!