Two new polls show tightening Florida Senate race between Nelson, Mack
by George Bennett | May 24th, 2012Sustained character attacks from Republican primary rival George LeMieux and fretting by some GOP activists about his campaign don’t appear to have damaged U.S. Rep. Connie Mack‘s Senate bid, according to new polls from Quinnipiac University and NBC News-Marist.
The Quinnipiac poll shows a virtual tie between Mack and Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, with Mack up by a 42-to-41 percent margin that’s within the poll’s 2.4 percent margin of error. In the GOP primary, Quinnipiac has Mack clobbering LeMieux by a 40-to-7 percent margin.
The NBC-Marist poll gives Nelson a 46-to-42 percent lead over Mack. That poll has a 3 percent margin of error.
Both new polls suggest the race has tightened since last month, when a Rasmussen poll gave Nelson an 11-point lead and a poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling showed Nelson up by 10 points. Quinnipiac’s last poll on the race in late March had Nelson up by 8 points.
The new Quinnipiac poll is based on a sample that Democrats criticized on Wednesday as too tilted to the GOP.
Quinnipiac surveyed 1,722 Florida voters May 15-21. Using the same sample, Quinnipiac released results Wednesday showing Mitt Romney with a 6-point lead over President Obama in Florida. Democrats howled, noting that while Dems hold a 40-to-36 percent statewide edge in voter registration, the weighted sample in the Quinnipiac poll was 34 percent Republican and 31 percent Democrat.
Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown defended the poll, saying the way voters self-identify their party affiliation is a better gauge than how voters are actually registered.
“What we’re getting is real-time party ID. And our real-time party ID is different, not surprisingly, from registration,” Brown said Wednesday. “If party registration is an accurate measure of voting behavior, then why do the Republicans control, with the exception of Bill Nelson’s seat, every statewide office?”
Marist’s sample tilts more Democratic than statewide registrations, with 43 percent of respondents saying they are registered as Democrats and 35 percent Republican.
The Marist poll finds Obama defeating Romney by a 48-to-44 percent margin in Florida.
May 24th, 2012 at 10:20 am
Quinnipiac is obviously an outlier.
Obama and Nelson are in fantastic shape in Florida.
This is true especially given the absurdly toxic environment that the right wing has FABRICATED out of whole cloth.
Why don’t we fix the debt and deficit?
Why don’t we fix other substantive problems?
Why doesn’t the government do more to create jobs during a jobs crisis?
The answer to all three questions is, sadly:
BECAUSE THE GOP DOESN’T WANT TO.
May 24th, 2012 at 10:22 am
Why even bother taking a poll if you are not going to do it right?
Oh yeah to create a fake reality in favor of your Republican clients.
May 24th, 2012 at 11:39 am
These polls of “registered voters” have a high rate of error. For a poll to be accurate, it needs to be a screen of “likely voters” not registered voters. You simply ask the questioner if they are likely to vote in the election. This really isn’t new in polling, and I do not understand why pollsters cannot get this right.
May 24th, 2012 at 5:16 pm
The crux of the problem with Bill Nelson is that in the 40 years he has been in political office, I can’t think of a thing he has done for FL.
That tells me it’s time to let someone else in office. Democrats should have run another candidate. They need to shake out those old guys and bring in some new blood.
And 40 years is too long for any politician.
May 24th, 2012 at 5:23 pm
WHY don’t the Obama, Nelson the democrats DO something to fix the problem with our economy, job?
What the poster fails to mention is that when Obama was elected the democrats controlled not only the House-Nancy Pelosi was Speaker but also the Senate-with Harry Reid the Majority leader.
They did not put together a budget and they had TOTAL CONTROL of our government. They didn’t need Republican votes in the House or Senate.
Now, Obama and Harry Reid are still in control of two thirds of the government.
And after 3 and a half years they STILL haven’t come up with a budget. They keep voting down the Republican budget, but fail to have anything materialize on their side!
The economy, lack of jobs, the INability to work with Congress-work TOGETHER- is hampering our country.
We need people who will bring this country together and it is Obama or Nelson.
And we’re still dependent on other countries for the USA’s oil.
Even former President Bill Clinton has stated to get the USA out of our huge debt, the MIDDLE CLASS, yes, unfortunately, the MIDDLE CLASS will have to be taxed, too.
We’ve floundered as a nation as well as lacking someone to unify us.
May 24th, 2012 at 6:38 pm
So the REPUBLICAN with the nickname “Laughable” is saying that Congress needs to work together and that it’s the Democrats’ fault that they aren’t?
I’d say you chose the correct nickname, “Mr. Laughable”. Because that is exactly what your comment is.
—
“What could have been more divisive than, when President Obama was inaugurated, for a number of Republicans, friends of mine, and a number of commentators to say, ‘We’re going to destroy him. We’re going to destroy him’?”
~ Colin Powell, 5/23/12
June 8th, 2012 at 9:49 am
Still wonder why the democrats who controlled both the House and Senate by large margins did not pass a budget in 2008? Wonder why democrats took $ 500,000,000,000 out of the medicare that I paid for all my working life? Wonder why democrats raised my medicare premium from $104 to $299 per month with nary a penny increase in my retirement income? Wonder why any intelligent retiree would vote for democrats?