Schale: Why Crist won’t be Florida’s next senator
by Michael C. Bender | August 31st, 2010Democratic operative Steve Schale predicts that independent Gov. Charlie Crist will not win the three-way race for U.S. Senate against Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek. From his blog:
In this political environment, absent some significant and unfortunate event that would thrust [Crist] back into the spotlight, the odds of him finding 15-20 points of political approval in the next nine weeks are slim, at best.
Therefore, for Crist, who after 20 years of being a GOP insider, his only path to victory is to find a way to be Democratic enough to win enough Democrats, Republican enough to win enough Republicans, and to do that in a way where he doesn’t anger Independents. Not exactly the easiest thing to do, when Democrats now have a plausible alternative in Meek and Republicans in Rubio. If Greene had won, it might be a different story.
Democrats who support Crist keep saying to me, “well, we just need Dems to vote for Crist,” but that just isn’t going to happen in the margins he needs to win.
Today, Rubio has the clearest path to victory, but once Democrats figure out that Meek is their only option, his path will get much more clear as well.
Tags: Charlie Crist, elections, Kendrick Meek, Marco Rubio, Steve Schale
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August 31st, 2010 at 11:34 am
Crist should exit the race and support Meek for the U.S. Senate. Rubio doesn’t deserve to be a U.S. Senator.
August 31st, 2010 at 11:59 am
Consider the source here. If he was being honest he would say, “Democrats will figure out that Crist is their only option if they want to avoid having a Senator Rubio from Florida.”
August 31st, 2010 at 12:02 pm
Meek should get out of the race on a high note after beating Greene…and come back to fight another day. Otherwise risk 1) being the cause of a Senator Rubio and 2) coming in third and having no political future. Might be an opening for Crist to say he would caucus with the Dems.
August 31st, 2010 at 12:18 pm
If it was Crist vs. Meek, it would be Charlie in a landslide, right Stevie? Having a right wing loon like Rubio as senator is going to drive you nuts.
August 31st, 2010 at 12:33 pm
lol your dreaming. The one thing you can say about Charlie is he knows how to win. There’s no way for Rubio to win a State wide race, Meek doesnt have the regcognition. Bring your salt the crow will need seasoning.
August 31st, 2010 at 12:48 pm
Its Senator Rubio to you Charlie. His trick to make you forget hes gay wont work. The cute wife is a gimmick to make you forget hes as gay as a 3 dollar bill. The demorats are running for the hills with Charlie “Im really a heterosexual” following close on their rears….no pun intended.
August 31st, 2010 at 12:55 pm
I agree with Dave. Crist is recognized all over the state. Only the diehard Rs & Ds will vote for meek and Rubio. The rest will pick Crist and then lie to thier friends when everyone asks how he won.
August 31st, 2010 at 1:00 pm
Einstien your a moron. Do you think that the rest of the people care to read your homophobic rant. What are you 12?
August 31st, 2010 at 1:11 pm
The question is whether Dems really want to throw away their vote with Meek…and in the process elect Rubio. If Rubio wins, he’ll win only a plurality of the Florida vote and then possibly be considered for VP in 2012. Do the Dems really want that to happen???
August 31st, 2010 at 2:21 pm
James…Im 11 and ashamed of your spelling and grammar skills.
Seriously…its Senator Rubio to you.
August 31st, 2010 at 4:25 pm
SCHALE IS AN IDIOT.
A VOTE FOR MEEK IS A VOTE FOR RUBIO.
August 31st, 2010 at 11:23 pm
It is interesting our papers are announcing that Crist is a viable third party candidate. When in reality, his decision was made to change parties AFTER he harnessed the $6 MILLION in funds from the GOP campaign machine. Since the beg borrow or steal for funds from big campaigners and lobbyists, his position is now that he works for Floridians.
He has never submitted and steered the legislators for a budget compromise in Florida. Instead, he hinted he would allow cuts , then vetoed bills to look like the hero.
To say you want a balanced budget and no new taxes is one thing. To allow and sign bills that allow dept. Directors in FLorida to use reserves for operational accounts because you lack viable spending alternatives is reckless. (2009 law for DOC)
Then if Crist did one thing right, he allowed Dems to storm the Capitol with examples of virtues of balanced budgets that GOP Florida has been lacking. To allow Florida to vote on tax alternatives looks foolish (Crist’s Ammendment One)when Graham would do committees of exhaustive studies to make the right decisions with help.This is Governor Crist’s shortcoming.
Florida will lose many GOP opportunities for good leaders. But in the US Senate, to be able to conform, negotiate, and balance unhappy constituents is not a job description Governor Crist could fit into.
September 1st, 2010 at 9:36 pm
How many of the above comments are from Jordan Raynor.. the “strategist” with no soul or purpose on this earth?
October 15th, 2010 at 6:09 am
Crist has done nothing for this state when it comes to jobs. Our insurance woes are getting worst. Equal Property taxes? Why didn’t he demand counties and towns not to raise their salaries and perks during this financial crisis we are in. Take a stand on retirements and rehiring again those so they stop double dipping. What a waste of taxpayers money. Even start a ban on cellphone use in our cars. Our car insurance is going thru the roof. You would think he worked for the insurance companies. Many states already have the law. Rubio comes from the same schooling. Don’t waste your vote on either.