Gov. Charlie Crist insists he hasn’t told anyone whether or not he’ll abandon the Republican primary for U.S. Senate and run instead as an independent.

“I haven’t even told my sister,” Crist said tonight before boarding a plane to Tampa Bay, where he’ll make his formal announcement tomorrow evening.

“Really, he hasn’t,” said Crist’s sister, Margaret, who was traveling with her brother today.

But all signs point to Crist making it a three-way race, which would likely include Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Kendrick Meek.

Crist said he has been polling fundraisers, asking whether they would support him if he ran as an independent. Those fundraisers said Crist will announce tomorrow he’s running as an independent for the U.S. Senate, according to FOX News and the St. Petersburg Times. Campaign officials are denying Crist has made his decision.

While it would be huge news — many say this gives Florida the most interesting Senate race in the country — it would not be a major surprise. Crist recently has been signaling this could be his direction.

What is surprising is that both reports came this afternoon within minutes of Crist denying to the state capital press corps that he had made up his mind.

Asked, at 12:29 p.m., if he risked appearing dishonest if ran as an independent, Crist told Tallahassee reporters, “If I were to, I’d say what I said the other day: Things change.”

Asked if could explain what changed, he said, “Later. If it did.”

At 1 p.m., FOX News cited “Crist allies” as their source. The Times, Crist’s hometown paper, reported at 1:11 p.m. that Crist already is informing key financial backers.

With Gov. Charlie Crist expected to bolt the GOP and launch an independent bid for U.S. Senate on Thursday, Republican frontrunner Marco Rubio’s campaign is putting out some advance counter-spin.

A publicly released memo from consultants Todd Harris and Heath Thompson says “Tomorrow will be the best day of Charlie Crist’s new campaign,” but he’ll soon run into financial, organizational and message problems. The consultants say Rubio faces a “tough race,” but predict Rubio’s anti-Obama-agenda message will prevail in November.

Read the memo after the jump…..

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Fox News political commentator and part-time Palm Beach County resident Dick Morris doesn’t think much of Gov. Charlie Crist’s expected decision to abandon his Republican Senate bid and pursue an independent candidacy instead.

Here’s Morris’ take via e-mail this afternoon:

Crist’s decision to run is a colossal act of ego bordering on mania. Rather than let a perfectly good Republican like Rubio win the seat, he is so determined that only he can fill it that he is willing to throw the election to a Democrat, and a radical like Kendrick Meek. And he does so in full knowledge of the fact that it might leave the Senate in Democratic hands.

I do not believe Crist or Meek will win. I think Rubio will outpoll them both. Meek is way too radical for Florida and Crist has shown himself to be so arrogant he must think he is God’s gift to Florida. And I say that as one who supported, advised, and voted for Crist in the past.

Boca Raton GOP activist Jack Furnari, who blogs occasionally for a Fort Lauderdale-based media outlet, took lots of heat in February when, citing unnamed sources, he wrote that Gov. Charlie Crist “is preparing to leave the Republican Party and run as an independent in the race for the U.S. Senate.”

Crist’s campaign accused Furnari of peddling a “patently false rumor” spread by rival Marco Rubio’s campaign to “distract” Republican primary voters.

Now all signs point to Crist bolting the GOP to run as an independent.

“I’m happy,” Furnari said today. “Now he’s exposed for the politician without principles that he’s always been.”

Senate Democratic Leader Al Lawson qualified today to run in a Democratic primary against incumbent U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd.

Lawson, a Tallahassee insurance agent, is term-limited out of office next year after serving 28 years in the legislature.

He’s an underdog in the race against 13-year Congressional veteran Boyd, one of the conservative “Blue Dog” Democrats.

Lawson made it onto the ballot by collecting the requisite 5,000 signatures to avoid having to pay the state fee.

House members unanimously passed a bill this afternoon that cracks down on pain clinics, also known as pill mills.

The bill, (SB 2272) was amended in the House to include a provision that physicians will not be able to dispense more than a 72-hour supply of controlled substances to a patient without a prescription.

The addition means the bill will go back to the Senate for a vote.

“These pain management clinics have opened up and are peddling the oxy’s and roxy’s to our citizens,” said bill sponsor Rep. John Legg, R-Port Richey. “This regulates them to the point where they can no longer operate in the state and hopefully, once and for all, we shut down the flamingo express, as it’s called in other states.”

The bills were filed after The Palm Beach Post reported that more than 30 pain clinics have opened in Palm Beach County since 2007, including a handful of offices started by convicted drug dealers and other criminals. Many are clustered in the county’s south end, near Broward County, where a state grand jury was empaneled in March to investigate.

UPDATE: The Senate approved the abortion amendment by a 22-17 vote.

Florida GOP Senate leader Andy Gardiner tacked a controversial anti-abortion amendment onto a health care bill on the floor this morning, an identical measure that died on a 20-20 vote two years ago.

The proposal would require women seeking an abortion to have an ultrasound in the first trimester, already required for pregnant women in the second trimester. The women would also have to look at the ultrasound unless she has proof that she has been raped or is a domestic violence victim.

The decidedly more conservative Senate will likely approve the contentious amendment this time around.

Moderate Republican Jim King, who voted on the winning “no” side, passed away last summer and was replaced by conservative John Thrasher.

Ted Deutch, a Boca Raton Democrat who also helped kill the bill, is now in Congress.

And Republicans have easily shot down a number of amendments offered by Democrats trying to water down the Gardiner proposal, indicating the bill would pass.

But they may not take a full vote on the measure (HB 1143) today, and the House would have to approve the changes for it to pass and head to Gov. Charlie Crist.

Sen. Dan Gelber, who was in the House two years ago, objected that no committee had fully vetted the proposal before it arose today on the floor.

Gelber, who is running for attorney general, gave a heated argument against the amendment after offering several of his own that failed.

“You are go to put in Florida law a provision that requires a victim of a rape to actually tell someone she was raped, to get proof of the rape before she can be excused by the state of Florida from getting an ultrasound. How wrong is that,” said Gelber, D-Miami Beach. “Shame on the state of Florida.”

Republican Senate hopeful Marco Rubio’s criticism of Arizona’s law attempting to curb illegal immigration represented a break with many conservative base voters. It also highlights a spirited debate on the right over the law and immigration policy.

The Washington Examiner’s Byron York says those, like Rubio, who have qualms about the Arizona law’s “reasonable suspicion” language are ignoring the fact that the law allows police to act on that suspicion only if they have already initiated “lawful contact” with a person, such as for a traffic infraction.

But conservative operative and National Review contributor Cesar Conda says the law gives “enormous discretion” to police and will “cause more problems than it solves.”

Conservative blogger Hugh Hewitt, meanwhile, says Rubio struck “exactly the tone national Republicans ought to take on the debate.”

Here, by the way, is the text of the Arizona law itself. Most of the controversy centers on Section 2, Paragraph B.

A unanimous House vote this morning to ban the sale of smoking pipes except at stores that mostly sell tobacco products sends the legislation to Gov. Charlie Crist’s desk.

While the sale of drug paraphernalia is already a crime, the bill, which passed in the Senate last week, would also prohibit devices that can be used for tobacco as well as illegal substances.

The legislation exempts businesses that get at least 75 percent of gross sales from tobacco products and no more than 25 percent from banned items.

Those items include bongs, water pipes, electric pipes, chillums, and ice pipes or chillers.

“Everyone except the retailers know that these pipes are a charade,” said Rep. Darryl Rouson, D-St. Petersburg. “This bill continues to peel away layer by layer this charade.”

A custom Harley Davidson Sportster motorcycle was wheeled onto the House floor this morning during the presentation of the customary gift to outgoing House Speaker Larry Cretul.

But the red bike with black smoke details was just a prop to promote the real gifts _ two leather Harley jackets, a helmet signed by all the members, and a license tag that reads “Speaker.”

There was no mention during the gift presentation that the bike wasn’t the real gift. Jill Chamberlain, Cretul’s spokeswoman, had to spread the word afterward that the motorcycle was just for show.

In 2006, former House Speaker Allan Bense was given a blue 1977 corvette.

“We live in frugal times,” said Chamberlin, who didn’t know the cost of the gift. The money is donated by House members.

Jim Horn of Palm City, who qualified for the ballot Monday as a no-party candidate in congressional District 16, has switched to a Democratic candidacy.

Horn switched his voter registration on Monday from Republican to Democrat, according to the Martin County Elections Office.

Horn wasn’t immediately reachable this morning. His voice message says “Vote independent and change America for ourselves and our children.”

As of this morning, the Florida Division of Elections website lists Horn as the only candidate who has qualified to challenge freshman U.S. Rep. Tom Rooney, R-Tequesta.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s recruit, Chris Craft, quit the race in March. Frequent filer Stan Smilan qualifed for the ballot as a Democrat on Monday, but withdrew Tuesday. Former Democratic U.S. Rep. Tim Mahoney, voted out of office in 2008 after a sex scandal, has said he’s considering another run.

Federal candidates have until noon Friday to qualify for the 2010 ballot.

Despite bi-partisan attempts to amend a 100-page condominium association bill, it was passed this morning with no additions _ a 107 to 4 vote that sends it to the governor.

South Florida Republicans and Democrats wanted more power to police condo associations inserted into SB 1196, but bill sponsor Rep. Ellyn Bogdanoff, R-Fort Lauderdale, said any amendments would force the Senate to refuse the legislation with just three days left in the session.

Several House members said that logic made no sense, referring to other bills, including the so called “jobs bill” that were amended and sent back to the Senate.

“We make decisions for this chamber. We are not a subset of the Senate,” said Rep. Kelly Skidmore, D-Boca Raton.

The proposed law would require lenders to pay a full year’s worth of back fees when they take title to a property through foreclosure or deed in lieu of foreclosure. Current law requires them to pay only six months of fees.

Also, associations would be able to directly collect rent from tenants living in units of delinquent owners, something that currently requires a court order called a blanket receivership. And non-paying owners or tenants renting units of delinquent owners could be banned from common areas, such as the pool or clubhouse.

Another provision delays a requirement to install fire sprinklers in some common areas from 2014 to 2019.

Although supported by the majority of lawmakers, those on the front lines aren’t sure how much effect the bill will actually have.

Gov. Charlie Crist confirmed our story today that he’ll announce his U.S. Senate decision in St. Petersburg on Thursday.

He said it will be in the late afternoon in Straub Park, right.

It’s home. It’s where my family is, so I think it’s appropriate,” Crist said.

With Friday’s noon deadline approaching for federal candidates to qualify for the 2010 ballot, former Democratic U.S. Rep. Tim Mahoney — booted from office after a 2008 sex scandal — says he’s still pondering a run for his old seat against freshman U.S. Rep. Tom Rooney, R-Tequesta.

Rooney beat Mahoney in 2008 after Mahoney admitted to “multiple” extramarital affairs, including one with a woman who had been on his campaign and congressional payrolls. Mahoney, now divorced, says he takes full responsibility for his past conduct.

Since Democrat Chris Craft quit the race in March, Rooney has been without a serious challenge. No-party candidate Jim Horn qualified for the ballot this week. Perennial candidate Stan Smilan qualified Monday as a Democrat, but withdrew today, according to the state Division of Elections.

“I am considering it. I’ve got to make a decision in the next 24 to 36 hours,” Mahoney said this evening. “At the end of the day, I think the district deserves competition.”

The Florida House passed a bill Monday that establishes standards and procedures regarding the use, monitoring, documentation and reporting of seclusion and restraint on students with disabilities.

The legislation, HB 1073, prohibits school personnel from using a mechanical or manual physical restraint that restricts a student’s breathing. It also bans school employees from locking, or physically blocking a student in a room that does not meet rules of the state fire marshal for seclusion time-out rooms.

“I will continue to advocate for children with disabilities to ensure their safety, while maintaining a positive learning environment,” said bill sponsor Rep. Dorothy Hukill, R-Port Orange, in a press release. “This bill has gone through a long process of review and consideration and I am pleased that Florida is heading in the right direction to enhance protections for our most vulnerable children.”

The proposal also requires schools to write incident reports within 24 hours and to make parents or guardians aware of an incident.

The bill now moves to the Senate.

UPDATE: Read Commissioner David Klement’s response saying “this whole process is a farce” after the jump.

The Florida Senate refused to confirm two of Gov. Charlie Crist’s utility regulators after a heated debate on the Senate floor this afternoon.

The Senate’s action means the two will not fill out the remainder of their Public Service Commission terms, unlike other gubernatorial appointees, and came in the shadow of Crist’s veto of GOP-backed SB 6, the controversial teacher merit pay plan.

Lawmakers will have 30 days to meet and provide another list of three names for each PSC slot and give them to Crist, who makes the final selection.

Opponents of Benjamin “Steve” Stevens, a Panhandle accountant and co-owner of a bar, and David Klement, a former newspaper editorial writer, said the two are not qualifed to serve on the commission that sets billions of dollars in utility rates.

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The budget is online at the Florida House website.

And apologies to Florida House document and budget staffers who’ve been working around-the-clock to get the hefty volume proofread, printed and on-line, for an earlier post.

Hot off the presses, the budget landed on lawmakers desks shortly after 2:30 p.m. this afternoon.

The Senate didn’t give it much attention initially. They were saying good-bye to their colleague, Senate Democratic Leader Al Lawson, term-limited after 28 (that’s right, 28) years in the legislature.

Lawson, “the Florida legislature’s gentle giant,” according to Senate President Jeff Atwater, is running for Congress against incumbent U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd.

That’s the amount of the 2010-11 state budget that hit House lawmakers desks at 2:59 p.m.

House and Senate lawmakers will have 72 hours to review the document before they vote on it Friday.

Some budget background here.

It’s looking good for condominium associations hoping for relief this legislative session and the power to collect back fees.

The House took up the Senate’s version of a lengthy condo bill (SB 1196) today and passed it to third reading. The Senate unanimously approved the legislation April 16. (more…)

WEST MIAMI — After a ceremony in Spanish and English to mark his signing of candidate papers for the U.S. Senate, Republican Marco Rubio today voiced concerns about “potential unintended consequences” from Arizona’s recent crackdown on illegal immigration.

Arizona’s new law requires immigrants to carry proof of their immigration status and allows a police officer to question someone if there is a “reasonable suspicion” about the person’s status.

“Everyone is concerned with the prospect of the ‘reasonable suspicion’ provisions where individuals can be pulled over because someone suspects that they may not be legal in this country. I think over time people will grow uncomfortable with that,” Rubio told reporters.

On the requirement that immigrants carry documentation of their status, Rubio said, “That’s not really something that Americans are comfortable with, the notion of a police state, as I’ve always said.”

Rubio said Arizona’s action reflects the failure of the federal government to enact effective immigration laws.

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